Is It A Recovery? To Tell, Count The Middle Fingers

December 8th, 2010 by alyx · 1 Comment · win

Fast Money gives us the ‘Shove It’ indicator: that is, the use of the number of people who have voluntarily resigned from their jobs recently (as opposed to those who have been issued a cardboard box and escorted out by security) as a proxy for economic recovery. The premise? In a recession, we’re desperate to keep our jerbs. In a recovery, we’re happy to walk away in search of a better one:

In October 2 million individuals quit their jobs, up from 1.7 million during the same month a year ago, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On its web site, the BLS states, “Quits tend to rise when there is a perception that another job is available and tend to fall when there is a perception that jobs are scarce.”

Hey, that means we’re… nearly 20% more confident?

The visual:

CNBC also tells us that shares of employment agencies are at 52-week highs, suggesting that someone, somewhere, is looking to hire somebody. Unfortunately, the November payroll numbers last week were weaksauce at best, and wages were flat, so there’s no guarantee that this bunch’a quitters is actually doing any better where they are. And I’m not sure any of this is good news to the 9.8% of people who are unemployed for reasons other than their own volition, but hey, two million middle fingers can’t be wrong. Right?

One Comment so far ↓

  • lavacake

    For the past year, alot of articles I’ve read state that employers are hiring only those that are currently employed while they consider the unemployed lepers. There’s no gain in employment as companies are just “stealing” each other’s employees.

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