Renaissance man Nassim Taleb, renowned trader, professor, author, bullfighter, and wide receiver, has just strolled out a fantastically bold prediction: the Federal Reserve will be gone within 25 years. OH, SNAP!
Because of the significant rise in debt, within 25 years “anything fragile will break,” Taleb said. That includes the Fed, he argued, because the Fed “fragilized this country.”
“The Fed is what got us here,” he said, because of its inattention to risks in the financial system. “It’s like someone flying a plane without understanding how to fly.”
Dude’s starting to sound like Ron Paul here with the Fed hate. Besides, following his own logic, the Fed won’t break because the Fed isn’t what’s fragile. The US is what’s fragile and when you put it that way, really, pretty much the last guy in the world to predict the demise of this country. Nostradamus called that one before there was a United States, even.
The news reportedly rocked Timmay to his very core, because his career path from here is pretty much either “run the Fed” or “sell Avon” and he was really putting most of his eggs in the “lord of all finance” basket.
“This transformation from private debt … to public debt” is “bad” from a risk standpoint and “immoral” from an ethical standpoint, Taleb — a member of the Derivatives Hall of Fame whose book became a bestseller — told a crowd at the Washington Ideas Forum, an event held by The Atlantic and The Aspen Institute. Deficits “will break the Fed” and it will be replaced, he predicted.
First, there’s a Derivatives Hall of Fame? Really? Fort Payne, AL, has a hosiery museum. A hall of fame for derivatives is perhaps the only thing that could be more ridiculous. Anyway, so let’s assume the Fed breaks. If that happens, that seems to imply that the public debt it held – largely US debt – suddenly became worthless. And, yeah, that would likely lead to the collapse of the Fed, just like it would any bank. But, you know, I kind of think that in such a scenario, what happens to the Fed will be the least of our worries.
On the bright side, the looting is going to be glorious.



Bourgeois Nerd // Oct 1, 2010 at 10:12 am
“Washington Ideas Forum”? BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
nutellaontoast // Oct 2, 2010 at 5:12 pm
I thought the Tea Partiers were going to bring down the Fed long before that happens…
alyx // Oct 3, 2010 at 1:42 pm
Sell Avon? I was thinking Mary Kay, just because I enjoy picturing him in a powder pink Lincoln Town Car.