If you are Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal, you probably spend a lot of time thinking about the share prince of Citigroup, perhaps even more than we do here at LOLFed. He’s one of $C’s largest shareholders, has been for years, and so he sometimes gets called on to give his thoughts on where the stock is going to go. Minyanville has chronicled some of his forecasts, and his record is cloudy, with a chance of fail:
July 19, 2002
“Citigroup is very cheap, too cheap at current prices,” Alwaleed said, upon announcing that he would plow another $500 million into the company. The following week, shares fell from $36 to $29 and change. Although they did return to the upper $40s later that year, Alwaleed never sold.
November 2002
“We won’t buy anymore. We have enough,” the frustrated investor said, when shares traded for about $36. By the following spring, they reached $52.
July 2005
Alwaleed told the The Independent that he’ll never sell if his investments crash because the best deals can be found right afterward. “When there’s a panic, I’m always happy.”
Always happy? He would eventually test himself on that statement.
November 2005
With the shares trading for about $48, Alwaleed was bullish on Bloomberg TV. He said he expected the shares to rise by more than 50% to $70 a share the next year. “Chuck Prince is trying to put everything in place, and really the expectation for Citigroup is to go back sky high,” Alwaleed said of the then-CEO. “He’s doing a good job.”
Chuck Prince, of course, stepped down from the CEO post exactly two years later. Shares did rise the next year, but only by about 16% before beginning their long descent.
February 2007
“Our confidence in Citigroup is strong,” Alwaleed said after Citigroup’s full-year earnings report. “The results reflect Citigroup’s solid performance due to its strong and diverse banking services making the company more competitive.”
By the end of that year, Citi shares would lose nearly half their value.
November 20, 2008
Citigroup shares are “dramatically undervalued,” according to Alwaleed, upon announcing another cash injection. Later that day, the shares fell 17.5%.
Buy high, never sell. Hmmm. Emphasis is mine because I like highlighting things that are fail. You should see what my WSJ looks like every day when I’m done with it.
Given Alwaleed’s history, his current prognostications on $C might make you want to run in the other direction:
“The turnaround for Citi is already happening right now. The shares are up right now so the worst is over,” Alwaleed told Reuters over the weekend. “In 2010, I’m looking for stabilization and profitability also. I’m expecting 2010 to be profitable for Citi.”
The Bandit is assuredly counting on Alwaleed finally being right, because he’s been put on notice, yet again:
“I don’t threaten those CEOs that I meet but I told him (Vikram Pandit) that the market gave you two years’ leeway, but I think now it’s time to deliver and 2010 for him is really the year to make it or break it and he has to deliver,” Alwaleed said in an interview.
Alwaleed had recently met with Pandit and he had told him that he must deliver solid results in 2010.
“It’s very important… For the shareholders that have been very patient with Citibank that the honeymoon is over now; two years is enough and I think he will deliver in 2010,” Alwaleed said.
We are of course thrilled he’s been given a full-years’ endorsement from a major Citi shareholder, because I already had to put a red X through Ken Lewis in the left center of the LOLFed banner, and putting another one on the left side would make the thing seriously off-balance, design-wise.



FT Alphaville » Citi posts Q4 loss of $0.33 a share, net loss of $7.6bn // Jan 19, 2010 at 9:14 am
[...] Banking News JPM posts Q4 earnings of 74 cents a share, net income of $3.3bn – FT Alphaville Forecasting by Alwaleed – [...]