Who knew the landscape of doomsayers was going to get so crowded? CB sent me The Guardian’s “25 people at the heart of the meltdown” earlier this week, a list that unsurprisingly includes George W. Bush, Alan Greenspan, Gordon Brown and permabull Abby Joseph Cohen, among others.
At the end of the articles, there’s seven people who are assuredly enjoying their told-you-so’s to various degrees:
- Andrew Lahde, the screw-you-guys-I’m-going-home hedge fund manager
- John Paulson, not to be confused with Hammerin’ Hank, who shorted housing massively and won
- Nouriel Roubini, crowned the official Dr. Doom
- Warren Buffett, whose presence might be debatable but at least he mostly kept crud out of his portfolio
- George Soros and his “superbubble” haterade
- Stephen Eismann, another hedgie who saw subprime coming
- Meredith Whitney, cited for her Citigroup pwnage
But… where is Peter Schiff? I mean, I think Schiff, I think DOOOOOOOM, e.g.,
However, Schiff’s notably absent from Guardian’s list – and Mish Shedlock recently ripped him a new one.
As Mish relays it, here was Schiff’s thesis:
- US Equity Markets Will Crash.
- US Dollar Will Go To Zero (Hyperinflation).
- Decoupling (The rest of the world would be immune to a US slowdown).
- Buy foreign equities and commodities and hold them with no exit strategy.
Upon review, Schiff might’ve only hit one out of four.
That’s better than the zero out of four that a lot of people hit in 2008, but hasn’t Schiff always been adverse to being mostly on the short side? If so, it’s doubtful he made much from his forecast on US equities. Mish says many of Schiff’s investors at Euro Pacific were down 40-70% for 2008.
The “Doom” title is going to have to be officially forefeited, unless Schiff really picks it up in ’09. We’ll keep you posted.
UPDATE: Peter Schiff has responded, and fortunately, he still speaks the DOOM, even if he might’ve gotten part of it wrong last year.
Damien // Jan 29, 2009 at 4:22 pm
What about Hugh Hendry, the manic Scottish hedgefund manager? He’s been banging on about housing/credit etc since forever. He made very little in 06,07 and then 40% up in 08. He’s also very,very funny. Look for any video of him on CNBC especially “Ireland will destroy the Euro” which is comedy gold.
Aaron McDaid // Jan 29, 2009 at 5:29 pm
How could Schiff predict doom and predict decoupling at the same time? The US, and much of the developed world, was living beyond its means; this means (by definition, almost) a trade deficit. Which means that the world’s exporters are to be badly hit too. The whole world economy has to be drastically reshaped to balance trade flows.
If the US truly was decoupled, it couldn’t have developed such a mad trade deficit and wouldn’t have had such a bubble with massive global implications.
CB // Jan 29, 2009 at 5:53 pm
aaron, the doom/decoupling argument is totally possible in the long run. it’s like the story of the 3 little pigs. whoever made their house out of straw & sticks is screwed and whoever made their house out of bricks would have to find new neighbors or whatever.
(the savers/producers regain footing quickly & break dependence on previous levels of consumption while the consumer/debt-driven economies of the west muddle through for years to come)
and lolo…i don’t need no snarky responses from u.
j/k
LOLFed » Doom Jr. Rips Mish A New One // Jan 29, 2009 at 9:18 pm
[...] posted earlier, Peter Schiff is taking it on the chin lately, and was put on blast by Mish Shedlock for not calling it right in 2008. Now, Schiff has fired [...]
pants // Jan 29, 2009 at 10:53 pm
I just squawked a little out loud, because there is nothing in this financial crisis that bothers me more than the insinuation that the Community Reinvestment Act and Clinton “beefing it up” is at the root of the crisis, as The Guardian says.
I’m glad they put Phil Gramm on the list, though I think he should be right up on the top spot with Alan Greenspan.
Jason // Jan 30, 2009 at 6:10 am
What, didn’t you see that helpful Youtube video that explains why the housing crisis is exclusively the fault of the last two Democratic presidents, who both hate America and do not understand the economy with their liberal ways?