Maybe Bernanke and the rest of the Fed wants to do the limbo all night long, but Jeffrey Lacker – president of the Federal Reserve bank in Richmond – is already thinking about grabbing his car keys to go home. From a speech he made today in Jerusalem, he comes across as bullish on 2009, not necessarily a fan of further cuts, and highly cautious about leaving rates at low levels.

“First, monetary policy is now quite stimulative. The federal funds target rate is 1 percent, below the expected rate of inflation. Second, the major shocks that dampened economic activity this past year have already subsided or are in the process of doing so,” he said.

He acknowledged that lower oil prices would help to bring down headline U.S. inflation in the coming months. The overall consumer price index has already moderated to a year-on-year change in September of 4.9 percent from a peak of 5.6 percent in July, as the cost of oil halved to less than $70 a barrel.

But Lacker warned this would not automatically translate into a lower core rate of inflation, referring to the inflation measure watched most closely by policy-makers that strips out volatile food and energy prices.

Lacker has a tough role in the Fed, as Resident Hawk and Senior Voice-in-Dissent; nobody at the Fed probably wants to hear about rates being too low for too long and fueling the irrational exuberance in the housing market, particularly from a fellow Fed governor. I am with him on the dangers of low rates, but I do see shades of Larry Kudlow in this statement, suggesting that risks have subsided and that the consumer, after the shock wears off, will be back at the mall with an Escalade full of cheap gasoline before we all know it. Are rate hikes in ’09 a Goldilocks thing?